Discover the true edge of your trading strategy — expected value per trade, profit factor, and monthly expectancy.
Expectancy is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per trade over many trades. A positive expectancy means you have a genuine edge in the market.
Formula: Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)
Profit Factor: (Win Rate × Avg Win) ÷ (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). Anything above 1.5 is considered a solid edge. Above 2.0 is excellent.
Yes. A 40% win rate with a 3:1 average R:R has an expectancy of +$60 per trade (assuming $100 avg win, $33 avg loss). Profit factor = 2.0. This is a strong edge.
1.0 = break even. 1.2–1.5 = marginal. 1.5–2.0 = good strategy. 2.0+ = excellent. Most professional systematic strategies run 1.5–2.5.
At minimum 100 trades, ideally 200–300. A small sample can show good stats by luck. Your profit factor and expectancy become reliable only with sufficient trade history.